Unemployment and HIV mortality in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: 1981–2009

OBJECTIVES To determine an association between unemployment rates and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). DESIGN Multivariate regression analysis. PARTICIPANTS OECD member states. SETTING OECD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES World Health Organization HIV mortality. RESULTS Between 1981 and 2009, a 1% increase in unemployment was associated with an increase in HIV mortality in the OECD (coefficient for men 0.711, 0.334-1.089, p = 0.0003; coefficient for women 0.166, 0.071-0.260, p = 0.0007). Time lag analysis showed a significant increase in HIV mortality for up to two years after rises in unemployment: p = 0.0008 for men and p = 0.0030 for women in year 1, p = 0.0067 for men and p = 0.0403 for women in year 2. CONCLUSIONS Rises in unemployment are associated with increased HIV mortality. Economic fiscal policy may impact upon population health. Policy discussions should take into consideration potential health outcomes.